BAPB No. 7: Quick election takes, football picks

Updated Nov. 17, 2022 for sad football prediction results

Pre-final and pre-research election opinions

Some of the people have spoken: It's too early to have an exact turnout count, but it appears to be down from the record midterm high of 2018 and under 50 percent of voting-eligible population, making it well under half of adults. Absentee and early voting make it more convenient than it used to be for those with multiple jobs and unusual shifts or with others to care for, but we're still a very low turnout country. While every individual should take some responsibility, we should work harder to break down both legal barriers to voting and the disgust and despair that so many feel about politics. Maybe we should worry less about threats to democracy and think more about how to have actual democracy.

Are we lying or just confused? You don't have to look far to find surveys that well over half of us think the country's going in the wrong direction, no matter who you vote for. Which makes me wonder why we voted for the people already in power? Looks now like only one incumbent governor will lose and only two statehouses will change hands. There remains an outside chance that up to three incumbent senators lose but I wouldn't bet on it.

States continue to polarize: Part of the incumbents' success comes down to the fact that we all think the country's problems are in the states we don't live in (or agree with), and those lines are only hardening. Former Republican-leaning swing states like Florida and Ohio are now won easily by Republicans, while former Democratic-leaning swing states like Colorado and New Mexico are moving ever more Democratic. Good news there is all of us now have more opposing states to hate.

This was a status quo election: Regardless of which party ends up controlling the House and Senate, the margin will be narrow and we can't expect much to change. Absent dramatic events, little ever happens in the second half of a president's term and that would have happened even if Democrats kept their leads in both houses. Things might get nastier and both more frustrating and entertaining, but the result won't change, nor will our lives.

We could really use a break: Elections are easy for media to cover and they interest the professional class of our country. But their real impact on the country and world is nothing like the attention and the hope and fear that we give it. And this one means little or nothing for the next one. Sadly, half the media's politics junkies are already talking about the 2024 election. Give yourself a break and some perspective and ignore it until 2024!

College Football predictions for Week 11

I have yet to prove my expertise on this but I'm enjoying fiddling with formulas 'til I get better. For public purposes I'm sticking with the same methods I've used all year but I do have hope for better next year, so save your pennies for non-lottery gambling.

This week I'm again picking a lot of underdogs to beat the line, which was a major error last week. But I'm stubborn, so.....and that was a mistake! Overall I hit just 42% against the line and 72% overall, slightly worse on the straight up picks below but no better on the line here either. Correct picks are underlined and all the rest are italicized.

In the Top 25, TCU's stay in the Top 4 for the playoffs should end this week with a narrow loss to Texas. Most other top teams should win, except the ones playing other ranked teams (and North Carolina against Wake Forest). Alabama should be back to winning, but barely, and Clemson and Tennessee should rebound from last week's losses impressively. In the Big 12 both Oklahoma teams should win for a nice change. Both Oregon teams should win as well this week.

Visitor	Home	Line	Winner	Vs. Line
#1 Georgia	Miss. State	Georgia by 16	Georgia	Miss. State
Indiana	#2 Ohio State	Ohio State by 40	Ohio State	Indiana
Nebraska	#3 Michigan	Michigan by 30	Michigan	Nebraska
#4 TCU	#18 Texas	Texas by 7	Texas	TCU
Missouri	#5 Tennessee	Tenn. by 20.5	Tennessee	Missouri
#25 Washington (WHAT?)	#6 Oregon	Oregon by 13.5	Oregon	Washington
#7 LSU	Arkansas	LSU by 3	LSU	Arkansas
Colorado	#8 USC	USC by 34	USC	Colorado
#9 Alabama	#11 Mississippi	Alabama by 12	Alabama	Mississippi
Louisville	#10 Clemson	Clemson by 7	Clemson	Clemson
Arizona	#12 UCLA	UCLA by 19.5	UCLA	Arizona
Stanford	#13 Utah	Utah by 24	Utah	Stanford
Maryland	#14 Penn St	Penn St by 10	Penn St.	Maryland
#15 N. Carolina	Wake Forest	Wake by 3.5	Wake Forest	Wake Forest
Boston College	#16 NC State	NC State by 3.5	NC State	BC
#22 UCF	#17 Tulane	Tulane by 1.5	Tulane	Tulane
#19 Kansas State	Baylor	Kansas St. by 2.5	Kansas State	Kansas State
#20 Notre Dame	Navy	Notre Dame by 15.5	Notre Dame	Navy
Purdue	#21 Illinois	Illinois by 6.5	Illinois	Illinois

Visitor	Home	Line	Winner	Vs. Line
#23 Florida State	Syracuse	Florida St by 7	Florida St.	Syracuse
Vanderbilt	#24 Kentucky	Kentucky by 18	Kentucky	Vanderbilt
Oklahoma	West Virginia	Oklahoma by 8	Oklahoma	West Virginia
Iowa State	Oklahoma State	OK State by 1	OK State	OK State
Texas Tech	Kansas	Tech by 3.5	Texas Tech	Kansas
Washington State	Arizona State	Wash. St. by 8	Wash. St.	Ariz. State
California	Oregon State	Oregon St. by 14	Oregon St.	California