• pshinnok

BAPB No. 7: Quick election takes, football picks

Updated: Nov 17

Updated Nov. 17, 2022 for sad football prediction results


Pre-final and pre-research election opinions


Some of the people have spoken: It's too early to have an exact turnout count, but it appears to be down from the record midterm high of 2018 and under 50 percent of voting-eligible population, making it well under half of adults. Absentee and early voting make it more convenient than it used to be for those with multiple jobs and unusual shifts or with others to care for, but we're still a very low turnout country. While every individual should take some responsibility, we should work harder to break down both legal barriers to voting and the disgust and despair that so many feel about politics. Maybe we should worry less about threats to democracy and think more about how to have actual democracy.


Are we lying or just confused? You don't have to look far to find surveys that well over half of us think the country's going in the wrong direction, no matter who you vote for. Which makes me wonder why we voted for the people already in power? Looks now like only one incumbent governor will lose and only two statehouses will change hands. There remains an outside chance that up to three incumbent senators lose but I wouldn't bet on it.


States continue to polarize: Part of the incumbents' success comes down to the fact that we all think the country's problems are in the states we don't live in (or agree with), and those lines are only hardening. Former Republican-leaning swing states like Florida and Ohio are now won easily by Republicans, while former Democratic-leaning swing states like Colorado and New Mexico are moving ever more Democratic. Good news there is all of us now have more opposing states to hate.


This was a status quo election: Regardless of which party ends up controlling the House and Senate, the margin will be narrow and we can't expect much to change. Absent dramatic events, little ever happens in the second half of a president's term and that would have happened even if Democrats kept their leads in both houses. Things might get nastier and both more frustrating and entertaining, but the result won't change, nor will our lives.


We could really use a break: Elections are easy for media to cover and they interest the professional class of our country. But their real impact on the country and world is nothing like the attention and the hope and fear that we give it. And this one means little or nothing for the next one. Sadly, half the media's politics junkies are already talking about the 2024 election. Give yourself a break and some perspective and ignore it until 2024!


College Football predictions for Week 11


I have yet to prove my expertise on this but I'm enjoying fiddling with formulas 'til I get better. For public purposes I'm sticking with the same methods I've used all year but I do have hope for better next year, so save your pennies for non-lottery gambling.


This week I'm again picking a lot of underdogs to beat the line, which was a major error last week. But I'm stubborn, so.....and that was a mistake! Overall I hit just 42% against the line and 72% overall, slightly worse on the straight up picks below but no better on the line here either. Correct picks are underlined and all the rest are italicized.


In the Top 25, TCU's stay in the Top 4 for the playoffs should end this week with a narrow loss to Texas. Most other top teams should win, except the ones playing other ranked teams (and North Carolina against Wake Forest). Alabama should be back to winning, but barely, and Clemson and Tennessee should rebound from last week's losses impressively. In the Big 12 both Oklahoma teams should win for a nice change. Both Oregon teams should win as well this week.



Visitor

Home

Line

Winner

Vs. Line

#1 Georgia

Miss. State

Georgia by 16

Georgia

Miss. State

Indiana

#2 Ohio State

Ohio State by 40

Ohio State

Indiana

Nebraska

#3 Michigan

Michigan by 30

Michigan

Nebraska

#4 TCU

#18 Texas

Texas by 7

Texas

TCU

Missouri

#5 Tennessee

Tenn. by 20.5

Tennessee

Missouri

#25 Washington (WHAT?)

#6 Oregon

Oregon by 13.5

Oregon

Washington

#7 LSU

Arkansas

LSU by 3

LSU

Arkansas

Colorado

#8 USC

USC by 34

USC

Colorado

#9 Alabama

#11 Mississippi

Alabama by 12

Alabama

Mississippi

Louisville

#10 Clemson

Clemson by 7

Clemson

Clemson

Arizona

#12 UCLA

UCLA by 19.5

UCLA

Arizona

Stanford

#13 Utah

Utah by 24

Utah

Stanford

Maryland

#14 Penn St

Penn St by 10

Penn St.

Maryland

#15 N. Carolina

Wake Forest

Wake by 3.5

Wake Forest

Wake Forest

Boston College

#16 NC State

NC State by 3.5

NC State

BC

#22 UCF

#17 Tulane

Tulane by 1.5

Tulane

Tulane

#19 Kansas State

Baylor

Kansas St. by 2.5

Kansas State

Kansas State

#20 Notre Dame

Navy

Notre Dame by 15.5

Notre Dame

Navy

Purdue

#21 Illinois

Illinois by 6.5

Illinois

Illinois


Visitor

Home

Line

Winner

Vs. Line

#23 Florida State

Syracuse

Florida St by 7

Florida St.

Syracuse

Vanderbilt

#24 Kentucky

Kentucky by 18

Kentucky

Vanderbilt

Oklahoma

West Virginia

Oklahoma by 8

Oklahoma

West Virginia

Iowa State

Oklahoma State

OK State by 1

OK State

OK State

Texas Tech

Kansas

Tech by 3.5

Texas Tech

Kansas

Washington State

Arizona State

Wash. St. by 8

Wash. St.

Ariz. State

California

Oregon State

Oregon St. by 14

Oregon St.

California


12 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All